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Churn Risk

How to spot subscription churn risk in WooCommerce

Flag returning subscription customers showing signs of churn

Badges orders from established customers who have not ordered in over 40 days, maintain an average order value above £25, and are purchasing from the Subscription category. This pattern suggests a subscriber at risk of cancelling who has returned for what may be their final order.

Customer warning
Part of: How to flag repeat customers in WooCommerce How to track customer lifecycle stages in WooCommerce
The problem

Subscription customers who go quiet for more than 40 days and then place an order are often in their last cycle before cancelling. Without a flag, this returning order is treated as routine and the retention opportunity is lost. By the time churn is noticed, the customer is already gone.

The solution

OrderBadger can identify returning subscription customers whose ordering gap and history suggest they are at risk of cancelling.

Who this is for

Subscription-based WooCommerce stores - meal kits, beauty boxes, coffee, supplements, pet supplies - where a gap in ordering from an established subscriber signals imminent cancellation.

At a glance
Requires 3+ previous paid orders Gap threshold: more than 40 days since last order Average order value must exceed £25 Must include Subscription category product Badge: Churn Risk (orange)
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WooCommerce detect subscribers about to cancel how to flag returning subscription customers at risk of churn WooCommerce subscription retention early warning system identify lapsing subscribers by order gap in WooCommerce WooCommerce churn prediction for subscription orders

How it works

Evaluates four conditions: the customer must have at least 3 previous paid orders, their last order must be more than 40 days ago, their average order value must exceed £25, and at least one product in the current order must be in the Subscription category. When all four are true, the order is badged and routed to your inbox.

Include a personalised retention offer such as a loyalty discount, free upgrade, or handwritten note. Consider reaching out directly to ask about their experience and whether anything can be improved before they cancel.

Rule template

Plain English rule Customer has 3 or more previous paid orders and days since last order is more than £40 and customer average order value is over £25 and at least one product is in the Subscription category

Write this (or something similar) in the OrderBadger rule builder. The AI compiler turns it into executable logic automatically.

Make it yours

Adjust thresholds
  • Shorten 'more than £40' days to 'more than £30' if your subscription cycle is monthly and a 40-day gap means they already skipped a renewal.
  • Raise 'over £25' AOV to 'over £50' to focus churn alerts on higher-value subscribers where the revenue impact of losing them is greatest.
  • Lower '3 or more previous paid orders' to '2 or more' to catch churn signals earlier in the subscriber lifecycle.
Add or remove conditions
  • Add 'and customer has a refund in order history' to focus on subscribers who have both a purchasing gap and a previous negative experience, a stronger churn predictor. …£25 and at least one product is in the Subscription category and customer has a refund in order history
  • Remove 'and at least one product is in the Subscription category' to apply this churn signal to all repeat customers, not just those buying subscription products.

Badge preview

Default: Churn Risk

When this rule matches

Established Subscriber Long Gap
Order total: £38.00  |  Previous paid orders: 5  |  Guest: no
Customer has 5 previous paid orders, last ordered 55 days ago (over £40), average order value is £38 (over £25), and order includes a Subscription product. All four conditions met.
Loyal Subscriber 45 Day Gap
Order total: £64.99  |  Previous paid orders: 10  |  Guest: no
Customer has 10 previous paid orders, last ordered 45 days ago, average order value is £62, and the basket contains a Subscription category product. Reliable subscriber showing a gap.

When this rule does not match

Established Subscriber Recent Order
Order total: £42.00  |  Previous paid orders: 6  |  Guest: no
Customer has 6 previous orders, AOV of 40, and is buying a Subscription product, but last ordered only 20 days ago - within the 40-day window.
New Customer Subscription Long Gap
Order total: £30.00  |  Previous paid orders: 2  |  Guest: no
Customer has only 2 previous paid orders, which does not meet the 3-order threshold, even though the gap is 50 days and AOV is 30 and the product is in Subscription.
Established Customer Non Subscription Product
Order total: £48.00  |  Previous paid orders: 4  |  Guest: no
Customer has 4 previous orders, 60-day gap, and AOV of 45, but no products are in the Subscription category - the category condition is not met.

Workflow

This rule includes workflow features that help your team act on flagged orders.

Inbox
Yes

Good to know

  • Guest checkouts cannot trigger this rule because all four conditions require a registered customer with order history.
  • The Subscription category must be assigned to products in WooCommerce. If your subscription products use a different category name, edit the rule text to match.
  • Average order value is calculated across all previous paid orders. A customer whose early orders were high but recent orders are low may still qualify.

Frequently asked questions

  • How is this different from the food-subscription-lapse-risk rule?
    This rule requires a product in the Subscription category and uses a 40-day gap with a 25 AOV threshold, tailored for subscription businesses. The food lapse risk rule uses a 45-day gap and 30 AOV without a category requirement, making it broader.
  • Will a customer who last ordered exactly 40 days ago be flagged?
    No. The rule requires more than 40 days, so exactly 40 does not meet the threshold. Adjust the number in the rule text if you need a tighter window.
  • Does the 25 AOV threshold include shipping costs?
    The average order value uses the order total as recorded by WooCommerce. Whether that includes shipping and tax depends on your store settings.
  • Can I use this to automatically send a win-back email?
    OrderBadger badges are informational and do not trigger automated emails. However, you can use the inbox alert as a manual prompt to send a personalised message or add the customer to a win-back sequence.

Related rules

How to detect lapsing subscription customers in WooCommerce How to flag lapsed customers returning after 60 days in WooCommerce How to identify win-back customers returning after months of inactivity How to badge loyal repeat customers in WooCommerce

Try this rule in your store

OrderBadger is free on WordPress.org. Install it and create this rule in minutes - no code required.

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